Economic growth: will there be a Northern Renaissance?

This debate is part of Battle of Ideas North 2026.

‘Growth, growth, growth’ were once Keir Starmer’s three stated priorities for government. Yet, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the latest Budget ‘does not substantively change the UK’s growth outlook’. Instead, forecasts tell a familiar tale: stagnant productivity, wages barely growing in real terms, and now a creeping rise in unemployment. All these trends have been exacerbated in a struggling Northern economy.

Although ‘levelling up’ the North of England was a central electoral promise of the Johnson government, many complain that there was little delivered. Equally, discussion of the North’s economic trajectory has since been largely absent from Labour communications and seems a secondary priority. Instead, we have seen the continuation of centralised control from Whitehall, finance-led growth and rising inequality, with the North largely shut out.

Further, rather than industrial renaissance, the North is on industrial life-support, clinging onto British Steel largely due to the unlikely lobbying of Nigel Farage. Once the backbone of northern prosperity, heavy industry has been hollowed out by decades of offshoring and declining competitiveness. The reprieve for surviving industries may only be temporary.

And what of innovation, new industries and dynamism – with future-orientated sectors and exciting new arenas of skilled employment? While Ed Miliband has promised to deliver 400,000 industrial jobs in renewable energy, his Net Zero policies’ impact on energy prices are arguably one reason why UK growth is in the doldrums.

Perhaps more devolution is the answer. Certainly, a rare success story can perhaps be found in Manchester – widely revered as the UK’s ‘second city’. Over the past decade, the city has recorded GDP growth of 28 per cent, alongside significant new building projects, expanding transport infrastructure and the steady rise of a visible civic leadership under the mayor, Andy Burnham. However, does Manchester really offer a model to be replicated, or is it an exception to other Northern cities?

For central government, transport-led infrastructure projects have been boasted of as the key to reigniting a Northern Renaissance. But for a decade now, infrastructure has been overpromised and underdelivered. HS2’s Eastern leg, connecting East Midlands Parkway and Leeds was scrapped – and the Western leg was later scrapped, too. The Northern Powerhouse Railway connecting a range of northern cities has stalled, with recently announced plans only promising upgrades in the next decade. But even if that rail upgrade happens, is that enough to kick-start Northern growth?

Do we need to move to further regional devolution, such as mayoralties, to get greater value for money and more opportunities for local growth? Or is decline now terminal, with the North destined to be a post-industrial wasteland? Is the UK economy really in a doom loop or have we all become too adept at talking the country down? Could we more optimistically believe that an industrial renaissance might start in the North?