Saturday 31 October, 1.30pm until 3.00pm, Courtyard Gallery
In the ongoing playing out of the worst recession anyone can remember, and the first major downturn of the new era of globalisation, ‘the Anglo-Saxon model’ of capitalism stands indicted. One of the key explanations offered is simply that the US has been borrowing too much, its banks taking too many risks, leading the way for a Western consumer-led credit crunch. We hear that we have spent to the limit, maxed our national credit cards and now have to go on an austerity purge to get things back to normal. But the other side of the coin has been export-led growth in Asia, in particular China and India. So must Asians be persuaded to consume more, as we consume less in the West?
For some critics, the world economy is fundamentally out of balance. They warn that recent shifts in flows of global finance must be understood not at the level of consumer habits, but as a reflection of changes in the balance of global production. Are our efforts to reform and spend our way out of recession merely window dressing, obscuring more profound and far reaching changes taking place at the level of global production, trade and international financial flows? Is a ‘rebalancing’ of production and consumption possible in a global economy? Does the failure of the Anglo-Saxon model imply the failure of the the whole modern experiment in the pursuit of prosperity through a more integrated and globalised world economy? Is it merely a question of balance, or is consumption itself the problem – and should Asia be learning from our ‘mistake’? If so, how else can the emerging economies continue their rise out of poverty?
There is an ongoing discussion about whether the US government will pursue ‘Buy American’ plans, and the Chinese government has introduced a ‘Buy Chinese’ policy for all government procurement. Are trade wars inevitable as the old system unravels? Or could it be that we actually need more production all round? Was Carlyle right when he cried: ‘Produce! Produce! Were it but the pitifullest infinitesimal fraction of a Product, produce it, in God’s name!’?
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adviser to José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission (speaking in a personal capacity); author, Aftershock: reshaping the world economy after the crisis
broadcaster; author, Financial Meltdown and the End of the Age of Greed; technology editor, BBC's Newsnight
management consultant; founding member, NY Salon; writer on economics and business
|Dr Linda Yueh|
fellow in economics, St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford; adjunct professor of economics, London Business School; economics editor, Bloomberg TV
financial services professional; researcher and writer, emerging economies and quantitative finance
The sun has set on America driving the world economy but China will not replace it.Larry Elliott, Guardian, 19 October 2009
In dollar terms [global imbalances] seemed huge...in relative terms the numbers are much less frightening. At their 2008 peak, on International Monetary Fund estimates, the global imbalances amounted to 2½ per cent of world gross national product, measured by total surpluses or deficits.Samuel Brittan, Financial Times, 16 October 2009
The authorities need to resolve the problem of global economic imbalances, but first they need to understand why it has come about – if they do not identify the cause, they cannot find the solution. Daniel Ben-Ami looks at the different explanations for the unprecedented global imbalances.Daniel Ben-Ami, Fund Strategy, 17 August 2009
The financial crisis and global recession showed how interconnected the world economy is. At Pittsburgh, all countries need to focus not only on events at home but across the globe. If the West is not going to grow strongly in coming years, we need the emerging world to help to pull the global economy along.Gerard Lyons, The Times, 17 August 2009
We need Chinese consumers to start splashing the cash. Will they break the habit of a lifetime?Carl Mortished, The Times, 28 July 2009
After years of being seen as outmoded, industrial policy is back on the political agenda, this time renamed 'industrial activism'. There is a widespread concern, fuelled by the crisis in the financial sector, that we have been too complacent about the decline in UK manufacturing, assuming that service industries would guarantee continuing prosperity with or without a vibrant manufacturing base.
Ruth Lea (Editor), Civitas, 23 June 2009
China, alongside other major emerging economies, is involved directly in the global economic crisis. Restoring its liquidity would help Western economies, but is China willing to assume this role? (p.54 of report)Linda Yueh, Newsdesk Communications Ltd, April 2009
Mason explains how deregulation is at the heart of the collapse of the banking system in September and October 2008 and how it led to expanded subprime mortgage lending, an uncontrollable derivatives market, and the lethal fusion of banking and insurance.
Paul Mason, Verso, 1 April 2009
The key is to acknowledge that, in a world of adjustable currencies, international lending must be denominated in the currency of borrowers, not just in that of a few dominant advanced economies. Only by tackling imbalances in the international financial system is there a chance of global financial stability.
Martin Wolf, Yale University Press, 30 January 2009
In the 26 years since market-oriented reforms were introduced, China has emerged onto the world stage as a major economic presence, particularly since her accession to the World Trade Organisation in 2001. This book is a collection of papers on the effects of globalisation on China's growth prospects and of China's growth on the wider economy.
Yang Yao and Linda Yueh (eds.), World Scientific Publishing, 29 November 2006