Saturday 16 May, 2.15pm until 3.15pm, The Great Hall The Battle for the Economy
Gordon Brown heralded the G20 summit as the dawn of ‘a new world order’ and unity was the mantra of the gathering. Certainly the G20 struck a militant pose against a beggar-thy-neighbour policies of protectionism. Rhetorically the summit united in denouncing any tit-for-tat tariff wars, so disastrous in the 1930s. On this point, President Obama said that history tells us that ’turning inward can help turn a downturn into a depression’.
Despite every world leader talking the talk on global co-operation, however, there remain increasing tensions over trade, especially between the USA and the East. Before the summit, the US stimulus package, with its ‘Buy American’ clauses, led Russia, India and China to express concerns that the Obama administration will still succumb to protectionist policies. American economic hegemony seems no longer to be a given, so do concerns about protectionism reflect an uneasy shift of power? China’s rhetorical call for a world currency only highlights the tensions. While the IMF looks hopefully to China for financial aid, there is more than a little reluctance to see this translate into political influence.
Can global co-operation survive the ‘siren call’ of protectionist trends? What are the implications for shifting geopolitical power? Will trade disputes precipitate the birth of a new world order, the decline of the West and the rise of the East? What are the political ramifications if tensions intensify?
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 | Professor Erik Reinert professor of Technology Governance and Development Strategies, Tallinn University of Technology; Chairman, The Other Canon Foundation, Norway; author, How Rich Countries Got Rich ... and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor |
 | Alan Hudson director of leadership and public policy programmes, University of Oxford; moderate middle distance runner |
 | Stuart Simpson financial services professional; researcher and writer, emerging economies and quantitative finance |
 | Parminder Bahra poverty and development correspondent, The Times |
| Chair: | |
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Kirk Leech
freelance journalist; researcher, development and environment |
As green shoots sprout on Wall Street, other nations are emerging from the recession in worse shape than the US
Anatole Kaletsky, The Times, 8 May 2009In the run-up to the Beijing Olympics in 2008, Chinese officials were the preferred target of many Western protestors. This year, by contrast, President Hu Jintao could waft into London for the G20 summit without anyone being ‘kettled’ on his account.
Sean Bell, Rising East, 15 April 2009In his debut on the international stage, President Obama presented himself as the leader of an America that can no longer go it alone, and as abiding by the protocol of a global new deal.
Helene Cooper, New York Times, 2 April 2009
After repeated pledges by world leaders to avoid erecting trade barriers, protectionism is on the march, provoking nasty trade disputes and undermining efforts to plot a coordinated response to the deepest global economic downturn since World War II.
Mark Landler, New York Times, 22 March 2009Since G-20 leaders signed a pledge in November 2008 to avoid protectionist measures, several countries, including 17 of the G-20, have implemented 47 measures that restrict trade at the expense of other countries, a new World Bank study shows.
World Bank, 17 March 2009Trade protection is on the rise around the world and risks pushing the economy into prolonged contraction. Officials have proposed more than 60 new trade restrictions since the beginning of the financial crisis. While a serious outbreak of protectionism has yet to occur, vigilance and leadership are required.
Elisa Gamberoni & Richard Newfarmer, VOX, 4 March 2009
Reinert argues that our economies were founded on protectionism and state activism and could only later afford the luxury of free trade. When our leaders come to lecture poor countries on the right road to riches they do so in almost perfect ignorance of the real history of mass affluence.
Erik S. Reinert, Constable, 24 July 2008
"What makes these sessions much more stimulating than most seminars is the sharp, often challenging contributions from the audience so that you have a real debate, not just a platform presentation."
Richard Donkin, independent journalist and author
